1. Decision · 22 Oct

   Delhi Traffic Police announced traffic restrictions for Dussehra on October 20

   1. Road closures and diversions Bad for commuters in Dwarka and South Delhi Reported: The Hindu Near certain
   2. → Transport & Travel
   90% sure · 22 Oct Every step, with sources →
2. Decision · 22 Oct

   Indian Railways likely to launch Bengaluru-Mumbai Vande Bharat Sleeper in November

   1. Faster Bengaluru-Mumbai train travel Good for passengers between Bengaluru and Mumbai Reported: a senior railway official Near certain
   2. → Transport & Travel
   90% sure · 22 Oct Every step, with sources →
3. Decision · 22 Oct

   Houthis struck a Saudi airport and oil field, killing at least three

   Why, in their words: “retaliating for a Saudi blockade of ports and airports in their territory and a strike on Sanaa airport” (Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree)

   1. Brent crude oil price rises to about $110 a barrel Bad for Oil buyers worldwide Reported: Saudi Arabia & United States Near certain
   2. →
      Higher fuel costs for airlines and shipping Bad for Airlines, shipping firms and their customers Our reasoning Plausible
   3. →
      Higher airfares for passengers Bad for Air travellers Our reasoning A possibility
   4. → Transport & Travel

   Also reaches them: Civilians killed and wounded at Dammam airport

   22% sure · 22 Oct Every step, with sources →
4. Decision · 22 Oct

   US State Department ordered some diplomats and family members to leave Saudi missions

   Why, in their words: “to protect staff amid heightened security risk after attacks” (US State Department)

   1. US diplomats and families leave Saudi Arabia Bad for US diplomats and their families in Saudi Arabia Reported: US State Department Near certain
   2. →
      Travel and security concerns grow Bad for travellers to the Gulf region Our reasoning Plausible
   3. → Transport & Travel
   45% sure · 22 Oct Every step, with sources →
5. Decision · 22 Oct

   Marco Rubio Urged India to buy more fuel from the US and Venezuela

   Why, in their words: “More US and Venezuelan fuel would help India” (Marco Rubio)

   1. Indian refiners may buy more US and Venezuelan oil Affects Indian oil refiners Reported: Marco Rubio Near certain
   2. →
      Indian fuel prices may change with new import deals Affects Indian consumers of fuel Our reasoning Plausible
   3. → Transport & Travel
   45% sure · 22 Oct Every step, with sources →
6. Decision · 22 Oct

   Marco Rubio Urged India to buy more US and Venezuelan oil

   Why, in their words: “Washington wants more Venezuelan crude processed at Reliance's Jamnagar refinery” (US government (Rubio))

   1. India's oil imports spread across more countries Good for Indian fuel buyers and the economy overall Reported: US government (Rubio) Near certain
   2. →
      Petrol and diesel prices may shift with new oil sources Affects Vehicle owners and daily commuters Our reasoning Plausible
   3. → Transport & Travel

   Also reaches them: Truck and bus operators' fuel bills change

   45% sure · 22 Oct Every step, with sources →

Reported and Expert view steps come from a named source. Our reasoning steps are not stated anywhere; they follow through a general cause-and-effect step, so we are less sure of them, and less sure with every step. How this works.